Weather Forecasting Seminar
and Forecasting Contest
| Contest Standings | Weather Links |
Weather Discussion Schedule (updated 29 August 2011)
Forecasting Overview Presentation
Sample Forecast Review Presentation
The purpose of ATOC 6020 (weather forecasting seminar) is to allow students to apply the concepts learned in the ATOC core classes to real weather data and use this information to forecast how the weather will change over a 2 to 3 day period. Students will attempt to build a cohesive story about the evolution of the atmospheric state based on limited observational and model forecast data.
The ability to build a cohesive story from limited data is essential for all research activities, so this class should be viewed not only as a forecasting class but more broadly as one to build skills needed to be a successful scientist. The forecasting seminar is a required class for all ATOC Ph.D. students, and must be taken after completing ATOC 5050. The ATOC 6020 seminar, weather discussion, and forecasting contest will be run by John Cassano.
University of Colorado graduate students can enroll in the ATOC 6020 seminar for 1 credit per semester, but participation in the weather discussions or forecasting contest does not require that students (or others) be enrolled in this seminar.
Both the weather discussion and forecasting contest are open to all ATOC students (graduate students and undergraduate minors), faculty, researchers, and alumni. Faculty and staff of ATOC affiliated research programs are also encouraged to participate.
All students enrolled in the ATOC 6020 seminar course are expected to actively participate in the weekly weather discussions, turn in written weekly forecasting summaries, and take part in the forecasting contest. All students enrolled in the seminar will lead one of the weekly weather discussions during the semester.
See below for details regarding the weather discussion format and the forecasting contest rules.
Students interested in enrolling in the ATOC 6020 seminar should contact the course instructor (John Cassano) and the ATOC Graduate Assistant (Laurie Conway)
The ATOC 6020 forecasting seminar will meet on Wednesdays from 2:00-2:50 PM in the ATOC conference room (STAD 255) during the Fall 2011 semester. The first class meeting will be on Wednesday August 24th.
The weekly discussion will be divided into a week in review section (including an analysis of the previous week's forecast, a discussion of any significant weather events that occurred during the past week, and a summary of the weather over the US for the past week) and a forecast discussion for the upcoming week's forecast. These discussions will be led by students enrolled in the ATOC 6020 seminar, using weather data available on the Internet. The discussions will be informal and discussion among everybody in attendance will be encouraged and is expected.
The ATOC weather forecasting contest will be conducted once a week. Each forecaster will make a forecast for Denver International Airport and for Boston, MA for two 24 hour periods, with the forecast period starting at midnight on Thursday. The day 1 forecast will be for the time period 12:00AM Thursday through 11:59PM Thursday. The day 2 forecast will be for the time period 12:00AM Friday through 11:59PM Friday.
Note: The forecast period will be 12:00AM Saturday through 11:59PM Sunday when forecasts are submitted on Friday (see class lecture schedule for dates of Friday forecasts).
For each forecast period the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and a precipitation category are to be forecast. Temperatures will be forecast to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit. Precipitation (liquid water equivalent) categories are:
Cat. 0 -- no precipitation or trace
Cat. 1 -- trace - 0.05", inclusive
Cat. 2 -- 0.06-0.24", inclusive
Cat. 3 -- 0.25-0.49", inclusive
Cat. 4 -- 0.50-0.99", inclusive
Cat. 5 -- >=1.00" .
Daily NWS daily climate data will be used to verify the forecasts.
Participation in the forecasting contest does not require participation in the ATOC weather discussion, but is encouraged.
The forecasts must be submitted no later than Wednesday at 6:00 p.m. MT. The forecasts are to be submitted here.
Temperature errors are counted as one point per degree Fahrenheit. Precipitation category errors are 4 points per category. In the event that a trace of precipitation verifies, both category 0 and 1 are accepted as correct forecasts. Standings will be posted for each city after the verification of the observations and forecasts are scored each week. Verification of the forecasts will be based on the NWS observations at Denver International Airport and Boston, MA for each calendar day of the forecast period.
All forecasters who do not submit a forecast by the 6:00 p.m. MT deadline will receive a persistence forecast.
Forecasters that know they will miss a forecast period can request that a standardized forecast (NWS grid, NAM MOS, GFS MOS, etc.) be submitted for them by e-mailing the course instructor (John Cassano) prior to the forecast deadline. Students enrolled in ATOC 6020 will be allowed to miss a maximum of 1 forecast period during the semester before receiving a reduced grade for the class.
Each week a set of standardized forecasts will be scored for comparison. The standardized forecasts are as follows: